Trading Places - RB Rankings, Trade Tips and Week 7 Notes

Making trades at this time of year is difficult.  You need to assess your own needs, recognise your strengths and then find something you want that someone else is willing to give up, with the understanding that you will be getting stronger.  The secret to a good trade is that everyone needs to come out feeling like they have addressed a need.  That means you not only need to be able to assess what other players need, but also assess their perceptions about each player.  This year running back has been pretty brutal making it even harder than usual to balance all those factors that you need to consider, so to help I have taken a stab at ranking the top 60 running backs going forward for redraft leagues.  Notes on the factors I considered are at the bottom of this blog.

For me there are 6 tiers, which sounds a lot but for trading purposes makes sense:

Tier 1 – no brainer, matchup proof starts.  If im selling any of these guys I want an equivalent WR/TE, or one hell of a packgage.

Tier 2 – all solid RB2s, with RB1 upside.  They all have defined roles and are mostly producing.  Lacy is a slight exception as he may be matchup driven, but his upside is such that I would be treating him like he has Tier 2 value for trade purposes.

Tier 3 – these guys could be/are RB 2s, so they have starting value, but they also have either low ceilings or low floors, limiting their value going forward.  Some of this is driven by injury concerns (Sproles), some by situation (Bush), but ultimately the value is the same.  All decent flex starters.

Tier 4 – these guys have ability and some playing time, but significant questions.  For Matthews it is injuries, for Ball it is role, for the New Orleans guys its situation, and for someone like Sankey it is consistent production.  There is potential here, and on some weeks anyone of them could go off, but not sure how predictable that is and mostly you are looking at production a step below Tier 3.

Tier 5 – has a lot of handcuff/bad situation/limited work types who all have some production, but are a big risk to start.  If something changes (probably an injury to someone else) then their value would significantly increase, but on their own carry basically no trade value.  Where they may have more value is for the owner of the starter, so could give you an edge in a package trade. Anton Smith is the big wildcard here – if Atlanta make a decision to explode his workload his value would shoot-up, but there is no sign of that yet.

Tier 6 – made up for touchdown vultures and guys on their way out.  None of these guys have any trade value, and if you have any rostered you should be asking yourself is there is any upside at all, no matter how small, sitting on the waiver wire.  You never feel comfortable starting them, but on any week could give you a TD if you are really REALLY desperate.

My top 60 for the rest of the year are:

Rank	Name	Team	Tier	Notes
1	DeMarco Murray	DAL	1	The fantasy MVP so far - according to the broadcast, in week 6 he joined Jim Brown as the only players to go 100+ rushing yards in each of their first 6 games of the season.  He then made it 7 in a row.
2	Jamaal Charles	KC	1	Had a slow start with the injury, but looks to be fully healthy and is therefore a must start fantasy stud.
3	LeShaun McCoy	Phi	1	Slow start, but with Sproles out he looked fantastic against the Giants.  Going forward im back on the McCoy bandwagon because hes just too good not to be.
4	Matt Forte	CHI	1	Im getting slightly worried about the Bears, but in a PPR format Forte remains an outstanding option
5	Le'Veon Bell	PIT	1	Theres not much to like about the Steelers, but Bell has been outstanding.
6	Arian Foster	HOU	1	Having a very good bounceback year in an offence that relys on him.
7	Marshawn Lynch	SEA	1	Production hasn’t been as consistent as you might expect, but hes THE guy, and they are going to run him into the ground.
8	Giovani Bernard	CIN	1	The Bengals struggles don’t impact on whether your starting him.
9	Andre Ellington	ARI	2	I almost made him a Tier 1, but for me doesn’t feel quite as safe as the 8 above him, espescially as Taylor takes some snaps away when things get one sided. Wouldn’t argue with people who think he should be higher though
10	Lamar Miller	MIA	2	With Moreno done for the season his value skyrockets
11	Eddie Lacy	GB	2	Was my 4th ranked RB coming into season, but not sure you can trust him - I may be too high, but if you trade him you are likely losing a lot of draft day value
12	Justin Forsett	BAL	2	Pierce vulturing TDs means he cant go higher
13	Ben Tate	CLE	2	Would be at 10 if not for the injury to Mack
14	Branden Oliver	SD	2	Been very effective since stepping in to the role, but his value will be affected by Ryan Matthews return
15	Ronnie Hillman	DEN	2	Is not losing the job unless he gets a major case of fumble-itus mixed with getting-Peyton-killed…itus
16	Ahmad Bradshaw	IND	2	The Colts are doing their best to keep him healthy, which means he splits more carries than he should with Richardson.  A must start in PPR
17	Jerick McKinnon	MIN	2	I REALLY like what I see
18	Alfred Morris	WSH	3	This still feels to high for him, but return of RG3 should help whole team, including Morris
19	Joique Bell	DET	3	Injuries, a potentially crowded backfield, and a line that cant block makes me nervous
20	Frank Gore	SF	3	Hes Frank F-ing Gore, but you are going to have to accept the bad weeks with the good
21	Tre Mason	STL	3	Like McKinnon, I like what I see. Also a reflection of everyone else in STL being terrible.  Some people are going to think this is way too high, but I see last year's Zac Stacy in terms of fantasy numbers going forward
22	Fred Jackson	BUF	3	Would be above Morris if not for the injury
23	Rashad Jennings	NYG	3	Looks like might be back after the bye, would be higher if there was more clarity
24	Darren Sproles	Phi	3	Another whose injury holds him back
25	Reggie Bush	DET	3	Still holds value in PPR, but has been all over the place this year and like Bell is hamstrung by a poor o-line.  Very borderline
26	Mark Ingram	NO	4	Out of all the NO backs I like him best for consistent production.  Not betting anything of value on that though!
27	Trent Richardson	IND	4	I don’t like the talent, Ikers and Daz do more, but currently feels safe as houses for at least 50 rushing yards, a couple of catches and a touchdown every game.  Hard to ignore that.
28	Denard Robinson	JAC	4	I start to feel shaky about things at this point.  He had a good week, and looked better last week, and while I don’t feel at all confident about him he could seize the role, and that has value.
29	Bishop Sankey	TEN	4	Similar to Robinson, but I feel better about the talent.  The problem is I don’t feel better about the situation (which may surprise some).  Again the value is in the role as starter with limited competition.
30	Pierre Thomas	NO	4	Big PPR upside, but return of Ingram and presence of Khiry is a problem.
31	Darren McFadden	OAK	4	Has surprised me with how effective he has looked.  Much better than MJD and on a better side would easily be a Tier 3.  I may be too harsh on him, but injuries are just around the corner.
32	Ryan Matthews	SD	4	Uncertain injury status prevents him being higher, otherwise would be a high end Tier 3 who drags Oliver down with him.
33	Khiry Robinson	NO	4	On the one hand we should be impressed that a team with Brees at QB has 3 backs we talk about, on the other hand you feel safe with none of them.  Feel worst about Khiry's role so hes 3rd for me.
34	Montee Ball	Den	4	I had him top 10 coming into the year, but he did nothing and now Hillman looks gooooood.  I expect Denver to keep with whats working, and that’s Hillman.
35	Isaiah Crowell	CLE	5	I have said on the podcast I really like Crowell.  There are weeks when you could risk starting him, but really you need an injury to Tate to explode the workload.
36	James Starks	GB	5	We should be talking about Starks being a threat to Lacy's job, but I stubbornly cling to the talent difference.
37	Andre Williams	NYG	5	Looked ok whilst Jennings has been out, but done nothing to make me think he is a threat to the starting role.
38	Knile Davis	KC	5	Looked good covering for Charles, but if KC wants to make the playoffs it needs to lean on Charles.  Davis will put up good numbers when KC has a big lead, if you can predict that, start him, otherwise hes a handcuff for me.
39	Roy Helu	WSH	5	Im probably too low, a talented enough runner and stays in near the goal-line more than Morris owners would like.  Still, only feel comfortable owning him as a handcuff.
40	Bobby Rainey	TAM	5	Tampa at some point have to realise he is the more talented back, but his value is limited until they do.
41	Jonathan Stewart	CAR	5	Yuck Carolina
42	DeAngelo Williams	CAR	5	See previous entry
43	Benjamin Cunningham	STL	5	The uncertainty in STL caused him to be widely picked up, but im not a fan and think Mason runs away with the role.  He does get some passing work, but im not sure I would ever feel comfortable starting him so cant rank him much higher.
44	Antone Smith	ATL	5	Ive said on the cast that I don’t like TD dependent guys, and sure enough this week he didn’t score and would have burned you.  An increase in workload changes everything.
45	Chris Johnson	NYJ	5	I suppose he should be a Tier 6, but think there is enough left in the tank that you may get lucky with a big game here and there.
46	Stepfan Taylor	ARI	5	I like him, but not sure he gets enough work to start.  Like many in this range, you are hoping for a TD.
47	Jeremy Hill	CIN	5	The meltdown in Cinci hurts him as his value comes when they are up big and able to run the ball.  Without that he is a handcuff only.
48	Terrence West	CLE	5	Bit of an odd one.  With Tate healthy his playing time is non-existent, but if something were to happen to Tate he would evenly split carries with Crowell.  Probably means he shouldn't be owned by anyone other than a very cautious Tate owner.
49	Doug Martin	TAM	6	His production has been Steven Jackson-esque.  You may be able to find someone who thinks none of it is his fault, but at some point the Bucs are going to realise Rainey is the better back.  His production says droppable, his name means hes still got some value.
50	Steven Jackson	ATL	6	He makes the list due to workload, gets you 40 ish yards, but there is no upside at all.
51	Bernard Pierce	BAL	6	The Ravens still seem to think he has something to give, so he gets to vulture a TD a week.  At some point they will realise that getting in the region of 2 yards a carry isnt worth using, then hes done.
52	Matt Asiata	MIN	6	Minnesota have moved on, but limited depth means he will get some work and is a good blocker.  TD Vulture
53	Carlos Hyde	SF	6	Doesn’t get enough work to be considered part of Tier 5, but if something happened to Gore he would instantly rank in or around top 20, with top 10 upside.
54	Joseph Randle	DAL	6	Same story as Hyde, although less talented.  Murray has got an injury history though so if you own him, stash Randle if you have the space.
55	Storm Johnson	JAC	6	You know I love the Storm, but Robinson has been more productive the past couple of weeks and there isnt enough upside in the Jags running game to make Storm worth stashing.
56	Shonn Greene	TEN	6	Made this list because pre-injury he was getting decent work.  Would drop off it fast if he comes back and finds Sankey has eaten his carries (which is what should happen - though if im the Titans id probably burn what Greene has left in a losing effort given RB injury problems)
57	Juwan Thompson	DEN	6	Deserves a mention because, like Hillman, there has been some production having been given the opportunity.  However Ball isnt done for the year meaning a lot needs to change for Thompson to be worth carrying.
58	LeGarrette Blount	PIT	6	I should probably have him ranked higher really, but havent seen enough from him production wise.  He's a Tier 5 type by my definitions, but Tier 6 production with some history of personal problems.
59	Lorenzo Taliaferro	BAL	6	Lots of people seem to like the talent, but none of them work for the Ravens.  Shouldn’t be owned until the team finally realises how bad Pierce is and switches the touches.
60	Alfred Blue	HOU	6	Another one I may have been too harsh on.  Probably a Tier 5 guy, but don’t feel great about the production.

There is no Zac Stacy and no MJD.  At this stage I would rather own a high upside flyer, or a straight handcuff than roll with either, so I didn’t rank them.  If either proves me wrong it will be Stacy, but at this point the Rams seem to have decided hes not the guy, so barring an injury im moving on too.  Sadly, despite some great years, it appears MJD’s time as a top NFL player have well and truly passed.

Don’t be afraid to trade a Tier 1 guy if you have good depth.  Given how this year has worked out you could easily have a Tier 1, and a couple of Tier 2s with a Tier 3 on your roster.  That gives you an opportunity to go and address a serious need.  If you need a RB, then target the guys with more depth, and don’t get transfixed on the Tier 1s, there is serious value to be had elsewhere.

Week 7 Notes:

• HaHa Clinton Dix – looks like the real deal for those of you in IDP leagues. 
• Anton Smith did nothing, I warned you there would be weeks like this.
• We discussed Roddy White on the podcast and he had a 100 yard 1TD day, off 15 targets.  If this holds I would take him over Larry Fitzgerald who we used as a comparison point on Friday night’s cast.
• Titans v Wash – yuck, another QB change, hard to guess what you are getting from Washington until RG3 is back, and even then there are question marks.
• Tre Mason – fumbled at end in crucial situation, but definitely the back to own  in STL(18 carries 85 yard 1 TD – no catches limits PPR value)
• JAGS WIN JAGS WIN JAGS WIN! Storm sighting, but Denard Robinson is the back you want.  Was a favourable matchup against a poor Cleveland run D so don’t get too carried away.
• Brutal day for Browns offense.  The questions is was this an anomaly against an improving Jags team, or is this the impact of losing Mack?  If it is the latter you need to worry about starting your Browns until he is back.
• We talked about the bad Cinci run D and you weren’t disappointed with either Trent Richardson or Ahmad Bradshaw.  Im not reading too much into Cinci other than this will happen with Dalton at QB
• RB hell for Buffalo – Dixon ended up starting.  Jackson out in region of 2-4 weeks (groin, bye in week 9 so week 10 return a distinct possbility), Spiller sounding like done for season (broken collarbone, will have surgery this week).  Bryce Brown a decent waiver wire add.
• McKinnon looked good against a solid run D.  19 carries for 103 yards, nothing in passing game, but has potential.  Im a big fan.
• Chad Greenway is finally back – get him in all IDP leagues as he is a tackle monster when fully fit.
• Not a great day for Lamar Miller (18c 61yd 1TD, 2 cat 22y), but im not worried and still a big fan moving forward
• Chicago – yuck!
• Huge day for Golden Tate, don’t get carried away, he was facing a Rob Ryan D that imploded in the 4^th Q.
• Larry Fitzgerald reverted to type (4 catches, 21 yards).  To me he is at best borderline flex.
• Andre Holmes turned back into a pumpkin.  I wasn’t buying it and im still not, though this was a tough matchup.  The bigger problem is that im still not convinced by Carr, who to me looks too slow in delivery too often.  Ive seen those guys before, they don’t last long.
• Not much for Terrance Williams, but a TD bailed him out.  I don’t usually like TD dependent guys, but Dallas didn’t have to throw much which explains his 3 targets.
• Larry Donnell hauled in all 7 targets to get back on track with 90 yds, but 2 fumbles.  Tom Coughlin HATES fumbles, hopefully it doesn’t limit his involvement in the offence going forward.
• Ronnie Hillman had another good day (14 carries 74 yards with 2TDs).  Ball owners should start to panic, Hillman is keeping this job.

Finally, congratulations are in order for Peyton Manning, whose 4 TDs moved him ahead of Brett Favre on the all time list.  Some records you get for just hanging around a long time, others for being consistently brilliant – Manning ticks both boxes and isn’t done yet.

Please do let us know what you think of our blogs and podcasts.  You can find on us twitter @mtaguk and on email mtaguknfl@gmail.com

Thanks for reading

Dave (@superbluemad)

Notes on rankings: 

*I started putting these together after the first podcast, but haven’t felt comfortable enough to present until now – it turns out doing rankings is really quite hard, even for just one position.  I have tried to balance the expectations coming into the year, performances so far, injury status, injury likelihood, offensive line situation, competition for touches (which means balancing my perceptions of talent and role with what the team is actually doing), and finally my gut feeling.  The result is a list top 50 running backs for the rest of the season