The Big Game Conundrum - Big Ben and Week 9 Notes

I don’t own Ben Roethlisberger in any leagues, but if I did I wouldn’t have started him this week, just like I wouldn’t have started Joe Flacco the week after his five touchdown game against Tampa. Turns out I would have made a huge mistake with Big Ben (other, less savoury nicknames are available) repeating his 6 TD performance from week 8 in a matchup that looked pretty bad on paper.  The read on him was he is just one of a myriad of QBs capable of a big day, but will not help you much the other 14 games a year, so my first reaction was not to go overboard as I tend to throw out silly TD type games as statistical anomalies.  However, after comparing him to a number of players near or above him in pre-season rankings, im startled to find that I think I would rather have Roethlisberger.

In standard scoring (which is an easy comparison point), Roethlisberger is 7th among quarterbacks, ahead of Brady, Brees, Romo and Stafford.  Given that most fantasy analysts had him at best at 12 coming into the season, that is quite something.  His past two weeks do make that somewhat misleading and you absolutely should not be trading Brady, Brees or Romo to get him (injury dependent of course).  That would still make him rank 10 – and he deserves to be there.

He heads a tier of QBs who were seen as high upside types, but unlike the others he has shown he has a high floor too.  Lets start with Flacco.  Some people went nuts when Flacco flung in 5 TDs against one of the worst teams in the league (wont even start going into how Big Ben’s two big games have come against 2 of the stingiest pass Ds out there), but take out his two big games (he also scored well against Carolina), and he drops from 15.4 points per game (ppg) to a measly 11.7.

Next up Matt Stafford – a pretty common top 10 QB off the board in drafts.  He has been without Calvin Johnson for too many games, but lets not pretend that Golden Tate hasn’t been a beast.  Take out his two biggest games and he is at 12 ppg.

Matt Ryan was predicted to have a nice bounce-back season and has a decent set of receivers, but his scores drop to 13.3 from 16.6, largely because that line cant keep him up-right.

Nick Foles, even without his injury shortened outing at Houston, drops from 15.3 to 12.  Although a large part of that can be traced to his awful performance against San Francisco, he still wasn’t showing me anything that made me trust him.

And lets not even talk about Andy Dalton.

That leaves Colin Kapernick, who was another popular choice ahead of Roethlisberger.  His scoring drops from 16.1 to 14.4, propped up largely by his running so if your league rewards passing more his value drops waaay down.  However he is also the most dependable scoring wise with a drop of just 1.7 ppg.  If you want safety first, Kap is your man, but he seemingly his upside is average.

Roethlisberger’s?  19.6 dropping to 14 ppg.  His differential is the largest, but the fact that his adjusted scoring is second only Kapernick is impressive, he is no Joe Flacco.  Think of it this way – on any given week Big Ben is giving you Kapernick type numbers, but unlike Kapernick he is also capable of winning you a matchup.  I wouldn’t have said it at the beginning of the season, and I wouldn’t even have said it last week, but Big Ben is a top 10 QB.

Week 9 notes:

• Second week in a row that Bernard Pierce has basically done nothing.  Fumble by Taliaferro may let him back in the conversation, but the only back you want in Baltimore is Forsett.
• Martavis Bryant had another good day.  Im still avoiding any receiver in Pittsburgh other than the beast that is Antonio Brown.
• Foster is to have an MRI on his groin – if own him, cross whatever you have that hes ok, and pick up Alfred Blue as insurance.
• Nick Foles is out indefinitely.  The Sanchize takes over, he could be productive in that offence, but you will have to live with the interceptions.  Not sure hes an automatic starter in a 12 team league (definitely not in 10 team), but deserves bye week fill in consideration.
• Bobby Rainey had a good outing, by Tampa standards.  Hopefully Tampa realise that and don’t give Martin another chance.  Rainey would be a high end Tier 3 in my RB rankings.
• Third poor rushing outing by Cleveland – said you should sell high on Tate on Friday’s podcast, may be too late now.
• Andre Johnson will have some good days, but DeAndre Hopkins is looking more and more like the number 1 in Houston.
• Chris Johnson returned from the dead – its ok, he’ll return to it next week.  Don’t go near him.
• BIG day for Percy Harvin, but you want to see it a couple more times before you trust him.
• Jeremy Hill burst out for 154 yards and 2 TDs on 24 carries.  He did pick up a knock, but returned to the game.  As long as long as Bernard is out he is a must start.  If there is any concern over Bernard next week then Hill is worthy of flex consideration.  Im likely risking it against the Browns flimsy run defence on Thursday with Bernard’s status unclear.
• Miami’s D – WOW!
• Asiata vultured 3 TDs for basically nothing else.  The Vikings obviously see him as the goal-line back, which hurts McKinnon’s value, but still think things continue to swing McKinnon’s way as the season goes on in the second half.
• Tre Mason struggled in a low scoring game (19 carries for 65 yards).  He does nothing in the passing game and the schedule doesn’t get any easier, but you have to like the role.  
• New England – Denver…may have called that one wrong!  Shane Vereen continues to drive me crazy, bailed me out with the receiving TD, but otherwise got very little work.  

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