Learning From My Mistakes - and Week 10 Notes

On Friday’s podcast Daz and I discussed my RB rankings from week 7, an exercise that demonstrated just how hard it can be to do ranks, and also how wrong I can be!  Apart from missing Vereen and Ivory off the list (amateur move – Vereen would be a low tier 3, Ivory and mid to high tier 3), injuries and usage changes have already wrought havoc.  For this week’s blog I have picked out the main movers amongst RBs.  This year's RB situation has been a mess, and makes such good blog fodder, but I promise some WR and TE coverage in the near future.

Up:

Mark Ingram High End Tier 2 (up from Tier 4).  Probably the biggest mover.  Hes a no-brainer high-end tier 2, Daz argued he should be a tier 1 – he may be right, but the return of Pierre Thomas has the chance to complicate things in New Orleans.

Travis West Low End Tier 3 (up from Tier 5).  Im not sure I feel particularly good about him, there are too many backs in Cleveland, but he has the job now and that means a lot.  He could easily slip down to a Tier 4 if Crowell and Tate eat into his carries and/or TDs too much.

Andre Ellington Tier 1 (from High End Tier 2).  His rushing performances aren’t always good, but in a PPR league he has huge value.  Some may say he is scoring at an unsustainable rate, but to me he looks to be at the centre of a playoff bound offence.  This week was an aberration against a Rams D that finally looks like the one we thought we were getting this season.

Denard Robinson High End Tier 2 (from High End Tier 4).  We had only seen it for one week when I last did the ranks, but hes produced every week.  Managed 4 yards per carry in a dismal loss to the Cowboys and got 2 TDs.  Some analysts worry about his health, but you can say that about basically any running back.  Sure fire starter until the end of the season.

Jeremy Hill Low End Tier 3/High Tier 4 (from Low End Tier 5).  Hill is borderline because once Bernard returns he will no longer be the feature back.  However, his performances should have forced a change in Cinci so we should be seeing enough from Hill to make him a potential fantasy starter

Down:

Ben Tate Mid Tier 4 (was high end 2).  The mess in Cleveland really could go any way so deserves to be in the same neighbourhood as Crowell (though slightly higher than Crowell).  Once the byes are out of the way you hopefully wont need him.

Bishop Sankey Mid Tier 5 (down from mid 4).  If you want 5-7 points a week fine, but if you want any sort of upside look elsewhere.  The one thing Sankey has going for him is Shonn Greene.  Might be worth a stash in keeper leagues that can keep everyone on their roster to see how things look come start of pre-season.

Giovanni Bernard Mid 3 (down from tier 1).  See the entry on Hill – the backfield is going to be more crowded and the injuries could see the Bengals take it easy on him.  Has the best upside of anyone in this list though.

Brandon Oliver Mid 4 (down from mid tier 2).  To be honest im not sure what I was thinking when I had it at 14 overall – the return of Mathews alone was a worry.  The downturn in production that some in the fantasy community expected swiftly followed.  Could easily be the Crowell of San Diego.

Ronnie Hillman Low 4/High 5 (down from mid tier 2).  Very different to Oliver, I was a believer, but first the Broncos coaches say they will ride a hot hand, then he gets injured.  At time of writing he is expected to miss 2 weeks, but in this offence that could spell his end.  Im not sure what you are doing with Denver backs going forward, but if anyone can make it their own they are well worth owning.

Notes:

• Carson Palmer’s season is over according to reports.  I want to see more of Drew Stanton before I consider him as a fantasy starter.  The weapons are legit, but his numbers haven’t been.  Hes only your Romo fill-in this week if you are beyond desperate.  Also interested to see if this redresses the balance in terms of distribution amongst the Cards receiving options.
• If Cincinnati had a backup worth playing, we’d be sitting through a week of “Dalton out” stories.  He doesn’t, and I don’t expect him to be that bad again.  I still believe in the fantasy value of Green, Sunu, Bernard and Hill going forward, you hopefully weren’t starting Dalton anyway.
• In other Bungles news, there is now talk that Eifert could miss the rest of the season – if you were stashing him on an IR slot he may be staying there.
• Starting LT Albert is out for the year for the Dolphins – this could really hurt their playoff push as well as Miller and Tannehill’s value if his replacement struggles.
• Jay Cutler’s good start is definitely behind him – if there is a believer in your league, trade him, but hes still good enough to get you through.
• More QB news – after last week’s blog, Roethlisberger had a stinker.  This happens sometimes with the borders of top 10 range, im not worried.  Still a weekly start.
• The play calling, and Bortles’ decision making, is going to hold back the value of the Jags receivers.  They were awful at Wembley, fantasy numbers not withstanding - Bortles looked like he couldn’t hit anyone who was on the move, while the check downs on 3^rd and long were maddening.  Can’t imagine they will go back to Henne, but if you have any Jags players watch them carefully.
• Wes Welker and Terrence Williams are both receivers I am comfortable dropping to get something I need, including standout handcuffs to starting RBs.  Michael Floyd is very close to being on this list (he almost certainly should already be, but im a big fan).  Don’t worry about it if someone else picks them up as you cant rely on any of them so let someone it be someone else’s problem.
• Reuban Randle – im out, im done, adios!  Odell Beckham is the only must start from the Giants receiving corp. 
• 4 for 143 and a TD off 7 targets – im in on Martellus Bryant.  Temper expectations though, that performance off 4 catches is hard to reproduce every week. 
• Im really close to treating the Lions running game the same way I treat the Panthers – that is NOT a good thing!

Finally, there has been a lot of discussion about the possible return of Adrian Peterson after his plea bargain last week and his resulting fantasy value.  I dropped him in a redraft league when I needed the space to cover byes and im not picking him back up.  We have no idea how fit he is, no idea about his mental state, only bad vibes about what the Vikings want to do with him, and an NFL commissioner under the spotlight after the Ray Rice debacle (debacle is too nice - it was a total, unmitigated disaster).  All of those factors suggest a mid-season comeback is extremely unlikely.  In a keeper league im holding onto him, but in a redraft league im letting go unless I have a very, very deep bench and believe in miracles.

See you all next week! (I promise it wont be more running backs...assuming they stop doing stupid things like getting or injured or just flat out sucking)